EU Assesses Market Readiness of Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Vehicles
The European Commission’s new Communication provides an in-depth review of the market readiness of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and the adequacy of infrastructure targets under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR, Regulation (EU) 2023/1804).
According to the Communication, by 2030 the EU’s zero-emission HDV fleet is expected to number between 410,000 and 600,000 vehicles, with battery-electric vehicles (BEV) comprising up to 90% of the fleet. This forecast is based on comprehensive market analyses and dialogue with industry stakeholders, and aligns with the revised CO₂ standards for HDVs adopted by the EU.
The Commission notes that vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) are ramping up production, with over 100 battery-electric models on the market by end 2024. Hydrogen technologies are progressing more slowly, with around 20 fuel cell models in small series and hydrogen combustion trucks expected from 2025. Supporting these efforts, the European Union is providing significant funding for the expansion of EV charging infrastructure for trucks, particularly along the trans-European transport network (TEN-T). The Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility (AFIF) is the main funding tool.
Furthermore, AFIR’s mandatory targets for recharging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure are assessed as sufficient to provide around 50% of the necessary network by 2030. The regulation’s design ensures comprehensive coverage of the TEN-T core and comprehensive networks, providing a solid basis for market-driven investments. The Communication emphasises that coherence between vehicle availability and infrastructure deployment will be critical to achieving the EU’s climate targets.
The Commission highlights the technological maturity of battery-electric drivetrains, which have become the clear focus of industry investment. Hydrogen technologies, while promising, remain at an earlier stage of market deployment. Moreover, zero-emission HDVs are now commercially available for all key use cases, with battery-electric vehicles leading the market.
The AFIR targets provide an appropriate minimum infrastructure base for the expected uptake. However, further analysis will feed into the AFIR review and impact assessment planned for 2026, ensuring targets are adjusted if necessary to reflect evolving market realities.
To learn more about expanding your opportunities for project funding, contact EUFUNDINGHUB !